Horse Racing

19/10/2022 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Geelong, Geelong Cup day


A bumper ten race program has been set down for Geelong on Wednesday, headlined by the Geelong Cup (2400m). The weather is fine, the track is soft (7) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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Race 1. (12:00) Bill Mcfarlane (Bm70) 2400m

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Back Me

14 Kapalua Sunset (Bet Now: $SP.00) is the unknown at 2400m but has home track advantage, gets J Kah to steer and is the one with upside. She ran over 1765m here last time and I thought was going to win. Just couldn’t quite finish it off when a close up third. She has always shown good talent. Just yet to showcase it properly but if she’s ever going to, it’s in a race like this and does get the jockey upgrade from J McNeil to J Kah.

Danger

9 Outback Jack (Bet Now: $SP.00) is bursting to win a race for Lindsey Smith but he keeps finding one or two better on the day. He ran over 2400m at Bendigo last time and looked the winner when presented. Just couldn’t quite get there and had to settle for a third to stablemate Kissinger, who was a lip off winning last Wednesday at Caulfield. D Oliver on, he’ll be strong late and appeals.

Long Shot

13 Bear Arms (Bet Now: $SP.00) lacks the class of some of these but is a last start track/distance winner and wil be strong at the end if they overdo it in front. J Kah was on her back in that race and she gave the mare an absolute peach in getting the job done. Clearly more depth here, but she’s the proven stayer, something that can’t be said about some of these.

Race 2. (12:30) City Of Greater Geelong (Bm70) 1700m

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Back Me

The key to 2 French Emperor (Bet Now: $SP.00) is dry ground so if this track can get to a Soft5 come jump time, he’s quite clearly the one to beat. He found firmer footing at Mornington on Grand Final Day, J Kah was on, she produced a peach on the gelding and the end result was a spank job in a race where the depth was similar to this. Maps ideally again, Kah sticks and he’s foun winning form…think he can hold it.

Danger

13 Pitchanun (Bet Now: $SP.00) has come back well and commands respect. She was five weeks between runs when racing over 1800m at Flemington on Trial Day when tucked in behind the speed and tried her guts out, but couldn’t quite finish it off when third to Parisian Dancer, a strong winner next start at Ballarat, so the form has been ticked off and I think 1700m on firmer footing is ideal.

Long Shot

4 Lorenzeti (Bet Now: $SP.00) is capable with his best. He has been kept on ice since a down the track effort on the Pakenham Synthetic back in late August behind Unique Artist, who won in town next time. Form reads well and fresh legs on a home deck with Willow aboard, his best is good enough.

Race 3. (13:00) Marcus Oldham College (Bm70) 1700m

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Back Me

I have to speck 1 Alhambra Lad (Bet Now: $SP.00) each way. Former Kiwi who hasn’t set the world on fire in two Australian runs, the latest coming at Sandown behind Pascero. Given a mini break and his tick over trial win last week at Echuca was strong. That was without Blinkers, they are on for this and he does get Nash aboard. His NZ form, best NZ form, sees him go close to winning.

Danger

11 Ima Shelby (Bet Now: $SP.00) should be suited on a firmer deck. Track was too wet for him on Benalla Cup Day and he was a beaten horse on the turn when fourth to The Talking Toff. Dominant at Moe the start prior, track should be on the firmer side and he can bounce back.

Long Shot

6 Uniquely (Bet Now: $SP.00) is one I could entertain for wider multiples. This mare resumed in the Gold Nugget on the Synthetic at Ballarat where she really struggled against some good types, finishing tailed off last behind Attractable. Back on the turf with good upside, she’ll sit back and be strong at the end. Doubt she wins, but a sneaky first four spot at a price.

Race 4. (13:35) Built-The New Way Forward-Bm64 1400m

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Back Me

Gee 1 Brasada (Bet Now: $SP.00) looks well placed in a race like this. Market said it would be a prep run when he resumed at Mornington on Grand Final Day but I loved the way he found the line late when fourth to La Caresse, beaten just over a length. Fitter, up to 1400m on a bigger track, I think he’ll only run well, and for mine gets in so well after the claim.

Danger

12 Matron Bullwinkel (Bet Now: $SP.00) is a very interesting runner. Maher/Eustace trained mare that resumes, having not raced since Feb 9 at Sandown. She was near the speed throughout and tried hard, but was no match for a nice horse, Attractable. The jumpout work has been so so to my eye, so I think watch the market and see if it knows if she’s ready to go. If she is, likely wins, but wait and see.

Long Shot

11 Stelvio is a very interesting runner. Caroline Jennings trains this former Godolphin galloper. He had two runs for Jennings last prep, winning second up after an encouraging return. I can’t find a recent jumpout for him so it’s a guess as to how forward he is, but I do respect this stable, so watch the market.

Race 5. (14:10) Plan Group Geelong (Bm64) 1100m

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Back Me

6 Hydro Star (Bet Now: $SP.00) has been somewhat of an enigma throughout his career but I will say this time in, he’s racing in good form. He ran at Mornington on Grand Final Day and was excellent from near last when third to impressive winner Direct. 1100m sees him right out, but a cold ride, a drag into the race, he’ll launch late with change up speed.

Danger

11 Hypothetical (Bet Now: $SP.00) is a progressive Team Freedman trained mare that resumes. This girl hasn’t raced since August 11 when a strong winner over 1100m at Sale when ridden with a sit and finished best to win. Liked her recent jumpout win at Mornington, and with luck from the gate, she’ll take beating.

Long Shot

16 Twiggy Pop (Bet Now: $SP.00) is a handy horse for Colin Scott that looks to have come back in super order. He resumed at Moe and should have won. Just didn’t have the clearest of paths in the straight, driving hard late to just miss. His late splits were some of the best of the meeting so he’s come back really well and fitter, he appeals.

Race 6. (14:45) Hamilton Group Dual Choice 1200m

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Back Me

4 Minsk Moment (Bet Now: $3.20) looks the best on the program IMO and anything north of $3 is a bet. He resumed over six weeks ago at Rosehill and produced one of the better runs of the meeting when rocketing late behind Remarque, producing some of the best late splits of the meeting. Improving track, J Mac on, good draw…good luck beating him.

Danger

15 Way To Go Paula (Bet Now: $17.00) is flying at the moment for Phillip Stokes. Her problem is her racing pattern. It’s awful. That said, I thought she had her chance a fortnight back at Morphettville when near last in the run and was good late without threatening when fourth to Bamyan Buddha. If she is able to settle closer in the run, she’ll take beating.

Long Shot

Fascinating runner is 2 Rock The Ring (Bet Now: $21.00), formerly with Team McEvoy but is having his first run for Patrick Payne. He was once touted as a Goodwood contender but his form went right off the boil. New stable, soft trial/jumpout work, but watch the market because his best is certainly good enough to be dangerous.

Race 7. (15:20) Geelong Classic 2200m

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Back Me

1 Let’srollthedice (Bet Now: $2.25) is short enough but he has panels on these re class, so I’ll bank on that getting him home. He ran in the Stutt at The Valley and wasn’t suited by the track pattern but was a definite pass mark in defeat behind Tijuana. Bred to eat up a staying trip and gets a lovely run in transit from gate four.

Danger

4 Roznamla (Bet Now: $10.00) is racing like 2200m will suit. He was a pass mark for sure two back at Flemington behind Elkington Road before going to Sale where he took forever to wind up but was good late when second. Gets a suck run from gate one and gets a hungry Nash on board. Right in the mix.

Long Shot

2 Dream Hour (Bet Now: $8.00) has come back in super order for the Griffiths/De Kock, which has been one of the more in form stables in Victoria the last 4/6 weeks. This horse has won both runs this prep, winning the maiden fresh at Sale and backed that up with a dominant display at Pakenham on the Synthetic. Deserves a crack in town and finds a winnable race.

Race 8. (16:00) Geelong Cup 2400m

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Back Me

7 Surefire (Bet Now: $6.00) is flying for Chris Waller. I think you can make genuine excuses his past three. Track pattern was against three back, two back he was ridden upside down and last time in the Turnbull, he was near last in a slowly run race and was never a factor. More genuine tempo here, up in trip…it’s D-Day for him.

Danger

6 Rodrigo Diaz (Bet Now: $5.00) is the first taste of the Cup and international form. Usually, it’s an autobet with these overseas raiders. The gate makes things very tricky for him, but his form, as a whole, gee it reads well. He is probably going not as well compared to last year, but overall, this is a thin edition, and stable finds Olly.

Long Shot

1 Serpentine (Bet Now: $51.00) is certainly capable with his best. Forgetful first up run behind High Emocean but he ran a much improved race in the Bart Cummings and was far from disgraced behind Lunar Flare. This stable/these colours are cast, but getting closer to the Melbourne Cup…surely they are going to fire.

Race 9. (16:40) Black Pearl Stakes 1200m

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Back Me

Fresh legs back to 1200m on a drying track, 5 Katalin (Bet Now: $3.60) gets her chance to get blacktype and she is the second of two good things on the card. She ran in the Golden Pendant where she ran a very strong race over 1400m, which sees her right out at Stakes level, behind a quality mare in Nimalee. Back to 1200m, back miles in depth, J Mac on…it just all points to her.

Danger

1 Turaath… (Bet Now: $5.50) is she back? Her Autumn prep was plain, but was spelled soon after and resumed in the Northwood Plume where she was good late in restricted room behind Literary Magnate. Staying at 1200m is the query and IMO, she’s primed for the 1400m Mares race during Cup Week, but she has the class to give this a shake.

Long Shot

6 Jump The Broom (Bet Now: $26.00) is one that I could include in wider multiples. She was four wide for the trip in the Northwood Plume and that hard run just told late when down the track behind Literary Magnate. Not sure she’s going well enough to win, but her best can see her finish top four.

Race 10. (17:20) Here For The Horses (Bm78) 1500m

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Back Me

I am surprised 2 Denero (Bet Now: $16.00) is big odds. He was 1200m to the mile at The Valley last time, which ended up being a hard run mile, and despite the ordinary set up, he was able to finish best and defy the track pattern for an impressive win. Gets D Lane aboard, he’s got room for improvement and would be an each way moral if the track was heavy. Soft5/6 is fine to be a bet.

Danger

3 Think N Fly (Bet Now: $9.50) is an improver here. He does tend to race best with fresh legs and he arrives here over a month between runs, his last run being at Sandown on September 14 when back and worked home okay without threatening behind The Garden. Olly sticks and if the inside horse is used to advantage, he’ll be dangerous.

Long Shot

7 Maximus Prime (Bet Now: $13.00) is an Archie Alexander trained gelding that resumes. This guy is first up, having not raced since August 6 at Flemington when keen in the run and that just took something away from his finale behind Fifth Position. His jumpout work has been good and can fire early on in a prep. Watch the market.

BEST BET: Race Six Number 4 Minsk Moment

NEXT BEST: Race Nine Number 5 Katalin

LONG SHOT: Race Eight Number 7 Surefire

 

Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):

Leg One: 1, 2, 4, 7

Leg Two: 1, 4, 6, 7, 9

Leg Three: 5

Leg Four: 2, 3, 7, 11

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