It’s the most wonderful time of the year, like NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournamentaffectionately known as “March of Madness” by most, starting this week.
The first four will be played on Tuesday and Wednesday, with the next Round of 64 on Thursday and Friday. This will be the 84th overall edition of the tournament and the 38th edition of the league since its expansion to 64 teams in 1985. With countless struggles over the years, FOX Sports Research has dived in. the numbers to find out you are the best first -rounds and tournament betting trends.
We’ve analyzed how teams perform on over spread (ATS) and immediate (SU) to give you the information you need to make some successful bets during the first week.
Let’s dive in.
The underdog has a slight advantage over the spread (ATS) in Round 64
If it feels like the weaker teams have performed well in the first round in recent years, it’s because they have – especially from a gambling perspective. Since 2015 they have hit a whopping ATS 122-97-2 (55.7%). 59 of those underdogs actually immediately won their respective games (SU), which is a significant number considering the number of mid- and small-scale shows competing.
If you look only at the previous three leagues, the dog coverage percentage is even higher, at 54-40 ATS (57.4%) and 31-63 SU (33%).
Below, we’ve outlined how the weaker teams have performed historically since the league expanded to 64 teams in 1985:
- The underhand is 583-559-24 ATS (51.1%) and 292-874 SU (25%) in Round 64 all-time.
- Double-digit losers were 235-227-6 ATS (50.9%) and 34-434 SU (7.3%) in Round 64 all-time.
- Currently, the only 20 plus difference in Round 64 features Kansas Jayhawks against Howard bison.Since the tournament was expanded in 1985, this will be the smallest 20 plus difference in Round 64.
- Since the tournament was expanded in 1985, this would be the least plus 20 point spread in Round 64.
Specific seed vs seed matches in Round 64
Expanding on the first round a bit, here’s a breakdown of some of the interesting trends associated with double-digit seeds. You might be surprised at how successful lower-seeds have been in recent years:
- A 12th seed has won 53 games in the first round since the field expanded to 64 teams in 1985.
- In eight of the past 12 NCAA tournaments, at least one 13th seed has beaten the 4th seed.
- In five of the past nine NCAA tournaments, the 14th seed has beaten the 3rd seed.
- In six of the past 10 NCAA tournaments, the 15th seed has beaten the 2nd seed.
- The double-digit seeds were 507-507-21 ATS (50%) and 232-803 SU (22.4%) in Round 64 since 1985. Excluded. Oregon Duck–RAM VCU game in 2021 as Oregon advances due to COVID-19 issues.
- to exclude, to expel Oregon Duck–RAM VCU game in 2021 as Oregon advances due to COVID-19 issues.
With that said, it wouldn’t be fair not to point out some of the obvious losing streaks that many small conventions run, as these are the schools that usually win these double-digit seeds.
- Horizon League schools have been 0-10 in Round 64 since 2012, with the final victory coming from Butler (now in Big East) in 2011. Seed No. 16 Northern Kentucky Northern Europe is the only Horizon League team in this year’s tournament. They have to face Houston cougarNo. 1 seed of the Midwest region.
- seed number 16 Northern Kentucky Northern Europe is the only Horizon League team in this year’s tournament. They have to face Houston cougarNo. 1 seed of the Midwest region.
- The Northeastern Conference schools all won 0-31 in Round 64 and 3-6 in the first four games. Seed number 16 Knight Fairleigh Dickinson was the only Northeast Conference school in this year’s tournament, playing in the Quarterfinals first South Texas Tiger.
- seed number 16 Knight Fairleigh Dickinson was the only Northeast Conference school in this year’s tournament, playing in the Quarterfinals first South Texas Tiger.
- Colonial Athletic schools have lost 0-9 in Round 64 since 2013, with the final victory going to VCU (now in Atlantic 10) in 2012. The 12th seed Charleston cougar are the only Colonial Athletic team on the field this year, facing the fifth seed The Aztecs of San Diego State.
- seed number 12 Charleston cougar are the only Colonial Athletic team on the field this year, facing the fifth seed The Aztecs of San Diego State.
- The Big South schools are leading 1-26 in Round 64, with the only win coming from Winthrop in 2007. The only Big South school in this year’s tournament was seeded 15 UNC Asheville Bulldogssecond seed bearer UCLA Bruins. Someone to note is 6-foot-11 forward Drew Pemberwho spent two seasons as one Tennessee Volunteers before moving to Asheville in 2021. He won the Southern Player of the Year this season, as well as repeating the Southern Defensive Player of the Year. Pember averaged 21.2 points per game and 9.4 rebounds per game this season with a 37% shot rate of 37% and earned the Big South League MVP.
- The only Big South school in this year’s tournament is the 15th seed UNC Asheville Bulldogssecond seed bearer UCLA Bruins.
- Someone to note is 6-foot-11 forward Drew Pemberwho spent two seasons as one Tennessee Volunteers before moving to Asheville in 2021. He won the Southern Player of the Year this season, as well as repeating the Southern Defensive Player of the Year.
- Pember averaged 21.2 points per game and 9.4 rebounds per game this season with a 37% shot rate of 37% and earned the Big South League MVP.
Bet on these coaches to make it to Round 64
It could be argued that coaching is more important in college basketball than in any other sport, and that point is emphasized even more in the league. There are five coaches in this year’s tournament who rank the 18 best of all time in terms of coverage for the Round of 64 (minimum 10 games):
- Matt Painter: 11-3 ATS (78.6%) in Round 64, all-time best by any coach (10 games min). The Purdue Boiler take on the winner Fairleigh Dickinson And South Texas and will likely be a double-digit favorite as the #1 seed.
- Bob Huggins: 16-9 ATS (64%) in Round 64, eighth best all-time (10 games min). ninth seed West Virginia climber seed number eight Maryland Topographywith Huggins’ team being a two-point favorite at Bet FOX.
- Bill Self is 14-8-1 ATS (63.6%) in Round 64, ninth best all-time (10 games min). The #1 Jayhawks will face 16th-seeded Bison as a 21.5-point favorite at the FOX Bet.
- Fran McCaffery was 6-4 ATS (60%) in Round 64, the 15th best all-time (10 games min). Eighth seed Iowa Hawkeye will face the number nine seed Auburn tigerwith McCaffery’s team currently ranked one point behind at the FOX Bet.
- Rick Pitino is the last coach on this list, with an 11-9-1 ATS (55%) in Round 64, the 18th best of all time (minimum 10 games). seed number 13 Gael Iona is the team 9.5 points worse than the fourth seed UConn Huskies.
1st seed dominates Round 64 AND title game
While focusing on Round 64, we also wanted to give you a quick overview of the traits the national champions exhibit.
Since seeding began in 1979, 26 No. 1 seeds have won the national championship, the most of any seed. The rest of the other seeds won only 17 titles. That means 60% of the national champions since 1979 have been the top seed. In fact, the previous 5 national champions and 12 of the previous 15 champions were all 1st seeds.
In Round 64, they were near perfect, hitting a whopping 147-1 SU (99.3%) and 76-70-2 ATS (52.1%) since 1985. The sole 16th seed hit defeat the top seed is UMBC . Retrieverwho beat Virginia Cavalry in the 2018 tournament.
KenPom Trends
KenPom has become one of the highest-rated college basketball analytics tools since its public launch in 2002. The site takes into account a variety of metrics to measure offensive and defensive performance. of every Division I basketball team. Looking at the pre-tournament KenPom data, there are a few interesting trends.
First, every national champion since 2002 has ranked in the top 44 for adjusted defensive performance. 19 of the 20 title winners during that time period also ranked in the top 21 of the adjusted offensive effectiveness rankings.
The only exception was UConn in 2014, which ranked 57th in the offensive category despite placing 19th in defense. So, using KenPom’s standings ahead of the 2023 tournament, here are eight teams that match the rankings in the top 21 offensively and top 44 defensively:
Houston +500 to win the title (bet 10$ to win 60$)
Alabama Crimson Tide +800 to win the title (bet 10$ to win 90$)
UCLA +1400 to win the title (bet 10$ to win 150$)
Kansas +1000 to win the title (bet $10 to win $110)
Texas longhorn +1600 to win the title (bet $10 to win a total of $170)
UConn +2200 to win the title (bet $10 to win $230)
Creighton blue jay +3300 to win the title (bet $10 to win $340)
Saint Mary’s Gaels +3500 to win the title (bet $10 to win $360)
Again, this is not a strict measure, as teams can get impatient – as the 2014 Huskies mentioned above. But it’s a good indicator to determine which teams might be worth betting on titles before the tournament begins.
Houston is current favorites to win them all at FOX Bets (+500), but it’s worth noting that only three other pre-tournament favorites have odds higher than that. Two of those three have won the title, with 2018 Villanova forest cat and 2017 North Carolina High Heels did so, while 1994 Tar Heels lost in the second round.
It’s also important to note that all 20 national champions in the KenPom era (since 2002) are ranked in the top 25 for overall tuning efficiency. All eight of the above teams ranked inside the top 13 of the KenPom data ahead of this year’s tournament.
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