2024 Republican presidential field ranking


Just as Donald Trump is starting to look vulnerable in the GOP’s potential presidential election, FBI executes search warrant for classified documents he kept at his home at Mar-a-Lago after leaving the White House.

In a normal political world, such a development could disqualify Trump or at least hinder him as he prepares to run for president again in 2024. In the political world strange value we find ourselves in, however, it has the opposite effect on his base. – made Trump, once again, a martyr, the subject of a dead radical government that began to target him no matter what.

The practical, political implications of the FBI’s search – legal implications for Trump aside – are twofold:

1) There is a rallying effect among Republicans around Trump.

2) Talk about him announcing his candidacy before the midterm elections in November has faded.

That doesn’t mean Trump will slip through the preliminary round without competition. It’s hard to see – given the number of White Houses hoped to be there and the extent of their activity in key states – Trump doesn’t face at least nominal competition for the Party’s nod. Republic.

What it do It means, however, that Trump is in a stronger political position today than he was three months ago. (Yes, I know, that’s weird.)

Here are 10 people most likely to be the Republican nominee for president in 2024. (My final ranking in the GOP field from June is this. here. And my latest 2024 Democratic presidential rankings are here.) A word of caution: it’s still early days so this list can and will change.

10. Rick Scott: The Florida senator is in the midst of a cold war with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell over how best to conduct the fall campaign. But Scott, chairman of the GOP Senate campaign branch, doesn’t seem particularly interested in trying to take McConnell’s job (and he won’t be able to do it anyway). Scott’s eyes are on a bigger prize – as evidenced by his recent trip to Iowa to campaign with a candidate of the House of Representatives. (Previous rating: 9)

9. Greg Abbott: Abbott has a comfortable, if not large, advantage over Democrat Beto O’Rourke in the bid for a second term as governor of Texas. And he attracted a lot of national attention because migrant bus to New York and Washington, DC. Abbott has also demonstrated the ability to raise the money he needs to run for president. (Previous rating: 7)

8. Mike Pompeo: No one on this list has been more public about their interest in running for president than Pompeo. Former foreign minister visited recently New Hampshire, is simply the latest in a series of trips to the states slated to kick off the main season. If Trump doesn’t run, expect Pompeo to position himself as a successor to the muscular foreign policy that the former President has sought to make his legacy of. (Previously Rated: Not Rated)

7. Nikki Haley: During a trip to Iowa this summer, the former United Nations ambassador and South Carolina governor leaned toward the highest possible candidacy she’s ever had. “If it looks like there’s a place for me next year, I’ve never lost a race” she speaks. Haley suggested earlier she wouldn’t run if Trump did, But political promises are made to be broken. Haley has charisma and experience in the campaign. However, it remains to be seen how much of a difference she will make in the race against Trump. (Previous rating: 6)

6. Ted Cruz: Texas senator is set to continue big campaign trip for the midterm elections that will take him through three states – Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada – will play a key role in choosing the next Republican presidential candidate. Cruz, who finished second to Trump in the 2016 primaries, is smart enough to know that The race is effectively frozen until Trump decides, but is working now so that if Trump quits (unlikely, but probably) he will have an advantage. (Previous rating: 5)

5. Mike Pence: Listen, I understand that he is the former vice president of the United States. And as a result, Pence got the name recognition and network of sponsors that most people on this list would envy. At the same time, he is persona non grata with the unquestionable leader of the Republican Party. Even if Trump doesn’t run for office in 2024, can you imagine a scenario where he leaves Pence alone in the GOP primary campaign? I certainly can’t. (Previous rating: 3)

4. Glenn Youngkin: Tends to be suspicious of Youngkin because he’s only in his first year as governor of Virginia. But as Barack Obama should have taught us all, lack of experience in national politics isn’t necessarily a bad thing. Youngkin is a very hot commodity in Republican politics these days; he will be campaigning for candidates across the country in the coming weeks. Politics is all about timing and momentum – and right now, Youngkin has both sides. (Previous rating: 5)

3. Tim Scott: On the one hand, the South Carolina senator publicly rejected his presidential aspirations. On the other hand, he spent a day at the end of August difficult for a House candidate in Iowa. (Scott has come to the state at least five times in the past three years.) So… The reality is that if Trump doesn’t run, it’s hard to see how Scott will stay out of the 2024 race. And he’ll be immediately one of the top contenders – he’s the one. was the only Black Republican in the Senate and had demonstrated the ability to raise money. (Previous rating: 4)

2. Ron DeSantis: There’s no question that the FBI’s Mar-a-Lago raid blew the sails of DeSantis’ presidential ambitions. But it’s also no wonder that the Florida governor is the only candidate on this list to directly threaten Trump in the presidential election. DeSantis continues to show his knack for garnering national headlines – his stuntman fly the emigrants to Martha’s Vineyard is the latest example – and in doing so, rallying Trump conservatives for his cause. If Trump, as predicted, enters the race, DeSantis will have a very difficult choice to make. (Previous rating: 2)

1. Donald Trump: Yes, without a doubt, the former President is the favorite to win the Republican nomination for the third time. But it’s worth noting that he’s not as popular as Hillary Clinton at this point for the Democratic nomination in the 2016 election cycle (Clinton won the nomination, but the race is against Bernie Sanders. was a lot closer than the original poll indicated.) Meaning the GOP nomination is Trump’s to take, but it’s not a foregone conclusion that he won it. Opinion polls at the end of the year picked out a large number of Republicans who ready to look elsewhere for the next leader of their party. (Previous rating: 1)

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