Horse Racing

24/12/2022 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Moonee Valley


Moonee Valley will play host to a nine event meeting on Saturday. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out two metres for the entire circuit.

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Race 1. (12:35) Ladbrokes Mates Mode Hcp 1200m

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Back Me

4 Cantolago (Bet Now: $4.50) deserves another chance. This filly jumped out super prior to debuting two weeks ago at Sandown where she looked lost on debut and was only getting warm late in the piece when fourth to Serasana. Should love the rise to 1200m and with J Kah on, hopefully she won’t be far away in the run this time around and prove hard to beat.

Danger

1 Amur (Bet Now: $5.00) hasn’t exactly lit up the turf in trial/jumpout work but he has the James Cummings polish and has to be respected. He trialled poorly in Sydney but has jumped out better on a couple of occasions at Flemington. Worked here on Tuesday morning and I didn’t mind the way he went when clicked up late alongside stablemate Energized. Watch the market.

Long Shot

7 Hellara (Bet Now: $12.00) looks like she will appreciate the rise to 1200m. Was a short priced favourite when debuting over 1000m at Bendigo where she was run off her legs from the outset but was good late without threatening behind dominant winner Celui. Fitter and up to 1200m, she won’t be far away and suspect she will be one of the strongest late.

Race 2. (13:10) Sweeney E.A. Altona (Bm70) 1500m

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Back Me

4 Forbidden City (Bet Now: $3.00) looks to be heading in the right direction. Peter Moody trained mare that was a dominant win at the midweeks at Sandown last time where she lobbed into a lovely spot behind the speed before angling clear and she got better as the race went on, drawing clear late. She was only second up there, so you’d like to think there is room for improvement.

Danger

1 Bubbly Lass (Bet Now: $3.10) has the runs on the board to give this a shake. Far from disgraced behind Roots on Oaks Day at Flemington before going here where she was tucked in behind the speed and got the splits late, looking home, but was nabbed right on the peg by Bellini Miss. Should land in a plum spot from the gate and has the right form to give this a shake.

Long Shot

2 Ballynora (Bet Now: $6.50) has a liking for The Valley and is a last start winner so she commands respect. That win came earlier in the month at this track/distance sitting back in the run but was absolutely trucking before angling clear and she drew clear late in the piece for a strong win. There is clearly more depth to this line up but always respect horses who have a liking for The Valley.

Race 3. (13:45) Sweeney Caroline Springs-Bm78 1000m

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Back Me

Landed with 8 Red Card (Bet Now: $2.80) for James Cummings. Three weeks between runs since a dominant win on Pakenham Cup Day where he produced sustained speed from the front and he ran good time in bolting up. The form out of that didn’t stack up last Saturday, so that is the query, but he’s proven at The Valley, should land on speed, outside leader at worst, and prove hard to beat.

Danger

3 Inundation (Bet Now: $2.25) is a speed demon for the Price/Kent camp that resumes. He was outstanding when last in work, forgiving the last start flop where it was an end of prep run. Given a good break to try and focus on the Summer and dry tracks, his jumpout work has been strong, he has sustained early speed and he will look the winner for a long way I am sure.

Long Shot

If they go silly in front, 6 Jabali Ridge (Bet Now: $14.00) will be one of the strongest late. He resumed on Pakenham Cup Day where he got back off the speed but worked home strongly late when second to Najem Suhail, clocking good late splits relative to the meeting. Hopefully gate one is used to advantage and if that eventuates here, he can easily win without surprising.

Race 4. (14:20) Sweeney E.A. Footscray (Bm70) 1000m

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Back Me

I think you have to believe what you saw with 10 Pink Cashmere (Bet Now: $5.50) and her debut win on the Synthetic at Ballarat. She gave them an absolute spanking, winning by over four lengths and produced some of the better late splits of the meeting, without being fully extended. I think now seems the right time of year to have a crack at a race like this, and her recent Cranbourne jumpout was outstanding.

Danger

Good test here for 1 Dusse (Bet Now: $3.90) but she is a filly proven at the track that is a 1000m specialist. Put together a couple of sharp wins on the bounce to start the prep before going to Pakenham where she landed on speed from the wide gate and tried hard but was no match for a really good talent and a future Stakes class horse, Red Card. Think that form can stand up against this lot.

Long Shot

3 Fission (Bet Now: $12.00) is a winner at the track and I think does save his best for here, so that makes sure he’s right in the mix. He ran three weeks ago at Pakenham when just off the speed and battled away pretty well in defeat behind a future Stakes winner IMO, Red Card, beaten just over four lengths. The depth here isn’t as strong, should land near the speed and prove hard to beat back on a track he likes.

Race 5. (15:00) Sweeney E.A. North Altona-Bm84 2040m

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Back Me

7 Vegas Knight (Bet Now: $6.00) is one of many examples of Nick Ryan improving a tried horse. Loved the way he toughed it out to win at The Valley two back before having a throw at the stumps in the Pakenham Cup when near the speed and he toughed it out quite strongly in defeat behind Kissinger. Has that 2500m run under the belt now, which should hold him in good stead for this. Leading contender.

Danger

9 The Nephew (Bet Now: $5.50) has had two runs at the mile now and is crying out for further, which he gets here. Not suited two back at The Valley behind Savannah Cloud before going to Pakenham where he found a bigger track and ran a much improved race when a closing second to Arran Bay. He’s back on track now and getting to 2040m, hard fit, he’s going to take a power of beating.

Long Shot

8 Ivy League (Bet Now: $31.00) deserves another look. Former American mare that made her Australian debut three weeks back at Pakenham where she was near the speed throughout and loomed to be a threat at one stage but condition just gave way late in the piece behind Arran Bay. Fitter and up in trip, her best US form is certainly good enough to be more than competitive in a race like this.

Race 6. (15:40) Sweeney E.A. St.Albans (Bm64) 2040m

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Back Me

13 Pitchanun (Bet Now: $3.50) has an awful winning strike rate but she saves her best for The Valley and more often than not is thereabouts. That was the case last time at this track/distance where she was given a peach by Shinn and looked all over a winner but was run down late by Motamayiz. She is absolutely bursting to win a race and if the breaks go her way, she can certainly take this out.

Danger

12 Ancient Egypt (Bet Now: $12.00) is third up from a spell and should just about be at peak fitness. He ran over the mile here just over two weeks ago where he was near the speed and was there to win but couldn’t quite produce change up speed and was a tad one paced to the line behind Confrontational. Do like him up to 2040m and this stable is the form camp in Victoria at the moment.

Long Shot

4 Motamayiz (Bet Now: $10.00) looks to have good upside compared to most and is a last start track/distance winner so he clearly appeals. Somewhat unwanted in betting but got into a lovely spot off the speed before being presented under Olly and really surged hard the final few strides to win impressively. They rode him very warm the start prior and he was good without winning but last start, a patient steer, it worked out. Hard to beat.

Race 7. (16:20) Sweeney E.A. Sunshine (Bm70) 1600m

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Back Me

I’m with 11 Soarhi (Bet Now: $8.50) but not a great deal of confidence. He looks just about ready to win after racing here just over two weeks ago where he got dragged back for cover from a tricky gate and worked to the line strongly when second to Confrontational. Has a good gate to settle much closer in the run and fourth up from a spell, should just about be at peak fitness.

Danger

3 Netanyahu (Bet Now: $9.00) has come back in super order for Team Corstens and is hard to beat against these. Last couple of runs have come at Sandown, two back running second to a handy animal, Saint Of Katowice. He then raced two weeks ago when on speed and showed good fight in the straight, only getting nabbed late by the unbeaten and very promising animal, Tasman Park. Suspect at the end of 1600m but hard to knock the way he’s going.

Long Shot

2 Confrontational (Bet Now: $20.00) has found winning form and can fill a first four spot. That last start win came at The Valley where he sat back off the good speed, got clear air at the right stage and came with a well timed run to win impressively, albeit there were several unlucky runners in behind. He remains at The Valley and despite a clear depth rise, he is in the mix as as knockout hope.

Race 8. (17:00) Sweeney E.A. W’town (Bm78) 2500m

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Back Me

12 Wahine Toa (Bet Now: $5.50) is a very one paced type for the Maher/Eustace camp so 2500m looks ideal. Ran over 2040m here last time out where she had the right run in transit but when asked to go, she just grinded and was one paced to the line when second to Wahine Toa. Love her at 2500m, lands on speed from the gate and should prove hard to beat.

Danger

5 Darlamax (Bet Now: $13.00) has found winning form, he has upside and a good racing pattern, so he’s clearly on top. He got complete control two weeks ago at Morphettville and once that eventuated, getting no pressure in front, he was clearly the one to beat and he gave them a spanking in a dominant display. He was jumping to 2500m from 1900m so he has room for improvement. The one to beat.

Long Shot

I am convinced that 13 Accountability (Bet Now: $19.00) is racing well. Ran in the Never Again race from two weeks back at Sandown and I thought on the turn he was going to be right in the finish but just couldn’t quite finish it off when fifth to Never Again. He has that 2400m run under the belt now, so you’d like to think that will hold him in good stead for this assignment, which looks winnable for him.

Race 9. (17:40) Sweeney E.A. Yarraville (Bm70) 1200m

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Back Me

Get the dartboard out. No bet race for me, but on top is 3 Heavenly Emperor (Bet Now: $13.00), who is having his first run for Logan McGill after formerly being with Stephen Brown. His best is certainly good enough to take out a race like this and the form around him from last prep reads well. Jumpout at Mornington was solid enough and he will be strong late compared to some of these who will be suspect at the end.

Danger

4 Magnum Bullet (Bet Now: $11.00) is a beauty who will land on speed and prove hard to beat. Strong on speed win two back at Kyneton before going here when near the front and battled on really well in defeat behind dominant winner Quraysha, who is potentially Stakes class. The depth here is nowhere near as strong, hard fit, in form, he’ll take beating I’d suggest.

Long Shot

Best version of 7 Vongole (Bet Now: $11.00) is certainly capable. This gelding resumed three weeks back at Pakenham where he was back near last in the run and made up some headway but was never really a threat behind Invincible Caviar, who won again last Saturday to frank the form. Been a long time since he has won, but this is one of the easier races he has contested in some time.

BEST BET: Race Eight Number 12 Wahine Toa

NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 4 Forbidden City

LONG SHOT: Race Four Number 10 Pink Cashmere

 

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 4, 5, 12, 13

Leg Two: 2, 3, 5, 11

Leg Three: 12

Leg Four: 3, 4, 6, 7, 14

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