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5 fatal mistakes of Putin in Ukraine | Russo-Ukrainian War


Russia’s justifies its invasion Ukraine, like the United States’ justification for its invasion of Iraq two decades earlier, proves that the world’s powers have not learned the lesson of imperial arrogance – theirs and those of others. other. From the ancient Greeks and Romans to the more recent powers of France, Germany, and Britain, geopolitical arrogance is notorious for creating deadly political stupidity.

Like wave of war against Russia In Ukraine, the Kremlin’s failure to achieve the promised swift victory can be attributed to Vladimir Putin’s arrogant assumptions on five main fronts.

First, the Russian President overestimated the military’s readiness for a protracted war with many options and underestimated the Russians’ eagerness to the empire by force. Russia was mired in a costly and somewhat humiliating confrontation against a militarily inferior but more determined enemy. As Ukrainians volunteered to fight and die for their country, Russian soldiers began deserting their units and Russian men began to flee. partial mobilization.

This leads me to Putin’s second ignorant assumption about Ukraine – the belief that Kyiv will surrender within days. Like other imperialists, he underestimated the Ukrainians’ ability to resist occupation and commit to independence. He argued for a common future for Russia and Ukraine because of their shared history, when most Ukrainians hoped to escape Russia’s imperial past. If Ukraine’s independent national identity is in doubt, then Putin’s war has ended it, igniting Ukrainian patriotism like never before, all backed by Western support. .

That was Putin’s third miscalculation. He calculates that NATO has been weakened by Donald Trump’s “America First” approach to Western security and will therefore slow to react to events in the East. He also said that Europe’s dependence on Russian oil and gas would make it difficult to cut ties with Moscow because of Ukraine. He’s wrong. American audacity and European tolerance for a belligerent and belligerent Russia have brought the two sides of the Atlantic closer together.

At the same time, Putin thinks that the United States is in complete decline, weakened by the mistakes of Afghanistan and Iraq, hampered by economic and domestic problems, and preoccupied with the rise of China, and would therefore react timidly to a broader crisis in Ukraine. Again, he was wrong. Unlike his predecessors’ timid response to Russia’s invasion of Georgia in 2008, its annexation of Crimea in 2014 and interference in Western elections, US President Joe Biden used the invasion. Ukraine as an opportunity to unite the West against Moscow and cripple the Russian economy.

All of which leads me to Putin’s frivolous and self-righteous assertions, the worst of all sins. Driven by a sense of individual and national greatness, he championed the international fight against a decadent Western liberal empire, while leading as a ruthless dictator, acting on personal intuitions and dogmas with little or no regard for democratic processes or international norms.

Contrary to the argument that the West leaves Putin with no choice but to invade, the Russian leader does in fact have a choice and he has deliberately chosen war. He considers diplomacy with a Ukrainian leader, whom he considers his actions from Washington to be futile. So instead of flirting with Ukraine, he decided to crush it, because as the ancient Greek proverb said “the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they have to”.

In fact, Putin has do all the bad things he accused the West of doing, and in the process, undermining the anti-imperialist cause around the world.

That brings me to the hypocrisy of the US and the West towards Ukraine. Putin, the horror of the Cold War, may have become paranoid, but America is no innocent bystander. Washington denounced Putin’s sword raging in Eurasia while enthusiastically supporting the Color Revolutions there, especially the Orange Revolution of 2004 in Ukraine – all of which did not support the revolutions. Arab Spring network a decade ago. It asked Putin to stop meddling in the affairs of neighboring countries while continuing his decades-long campaign of destruction to recreate the Middle East, a remote region he never really understood. Okay.

The Biden administration rightfully condemned Russia for violating international law in Ukraine, but it did the same and worse in Iraq, where the people paid a terrible price through no fault of their own. . Biden has never apologized for supporting the disastrous war as a US senator. He and the rest of the US foreign policy establishment believed that the war would end quickly because American soldiers were welcomed as liberators. Then President George W Bush foolishly declared “mission accomplished” when the real war had only just begun and would last more than a decade.

Biden has viewed the conflict in Ukraine as a conflict between democracy and dictatorship while doing all he can to enlist the support of some of the world’s worst dictatorships against Russia. Yemenis, Palestinians, Syrians and countless other victims of war and occupation have been ignored in favor of Ukraine.

Last week, the US and its allies blow away Russia over the annexation of Ukrainian territories, but has kept quiet about Israel’s annexation of parts of Syria and Palestine. Biden, a self-proclaimed Jew, has been silent about his predecessor’s decision to move the US embassy to Jerusalem. British Prime Minister Liz Truss, another self-proclaimed Zionist, is considering doing the same for the British embassy.

Exposing such hypocrisy is important for objectivity, something most mainstream Western media lack, and more importantly, because the United States needs to prevent such attitudes. this “kinder than you” hypocrisy and helped bring about a quick diplomatic end to the conflict in Ukraine. Before the war got worse.

Although Ukraine may have turned the tide now, Russia has many options, including the use of overwhelming air power and tactical nuclear weapons.

But the less likely scenario should also be avoided, because humiliating Russia could lead to a chaotic disintegration of their union, just as Moscow’s defeat in Afghanistan hastened the collapse. of the Soviet Union. Only this time, the results can be more confusing.

In short, arrogance and hypocrisy tend to go hand in hand, leading to even greater consequences and ultimately the downfall of empires. It is really nauseating to hear Russians and Americans repeat old justifications for war as if they were believable or original. We ancient Greeks know all about the tragedy of imperial wars as Thucydides recounts in his perfect history of the Peloponnesian War some 2,500 years ago. And we’ve seen it repeated over the course of the past millennium.

So why then do the world’s great powers continue to make the same costly mistakes, expecting different results? Arrogance also creates madness?

Remember, smart people learn from their own mistakes, wise people learn from others’ mistakes, but only fools learn from their mistakes, as we see in Ukraine today. .

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