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A wave of Republicans in the House is still entirely possible





CNN

Race for control of the United States Senate dominated the news of the midterm. That is not surprising. Polls abound, characters abound, and we have a pretty good idea of ​​the races that will determine which side wins the majority.

However, it is race to the US House that could be the more interesting one. Ours CNN/SSRS . Poll Last week, Democrats rallied 3 points in the congressional general vote – within a margin of error and close to recent polls averages, which show the parties on equal footing. For reference, Republicans have led in terms of the general vote at this point in the last two midterms when there was a Democratic president (in 2010 and 2014).

If the current tie on the general ballot holds in the vote for the House, control of the chamber would be a subversion. Indeed, some people, including menoted the ability of House Democrats to maintain their majority.

But some nonpartisan analysts think it could be. Most admit that Republicans are well positioned to win back the House in this election.

However, I would argue that we are underscoring the potential of a Republican big night. And the potential GOP boom is where we start to look at the week in politics.

Six months ago, a big GOP win in the House seemed the most likely possibility. Republicans have done better on the general congressional ballot than at any point in history so far after the election. Since then, a combination of events, including U.S. Supreme Court Overturn of Roe v. Wadeit seems scale up on the Democratic side.

However, when looking at some of the no-voting data and fundamentals, we shouldn’t be looking at the possibility of Republicans winning big next month.

Let’s start with the House race ratings. These are set symbols such as Cook’s political report and Internal elections awarded to individual county races based on a variety of factors, including how those counties have voted in the past and internal polling data.

I’ve gathered all the last House ratings data I could get from Cook since 2000 – specifically the number of races rated as “subversive” or “in favor of” a party right away. before the election. Collectively, these ratings have done an accurate job in telling the story of House elections.

When a party has more races in these two designations, that party tends to underperform. Currently, there are 23 more seats held by Democrats than Republicans in the flip-up or forward-leaning category, according to Cook. In addition, there are four Democratic seats rated as “likely” to move to the GOP.

Taking into account the small, but fairly consistent, trend of Republicans slightly outperforming race ratings since 2000, this translates to a GOP net gain of 26 seats next month. This would bring Republicans to a total of about 239 seats.

Even without taking into account the Republican preponderance of the past, the current race ranking would still shift to Republican ending with a net gain of 17 seats, for a total of 230 seats.

This is consistent with what Amy Walter, publisher of The Cook Political Report, noted in a recent analysis: One side tends to choose the bulk of the bounce races. And that party is the one that’s not in the White House, from midterms back to 2006.

While it could be argued that Republicans winning 230 House seats would not be a “wave” given their relatively high base level towards the election, 230 seats would be the same number of Republicans ended up with after the historic 1994 midterm elections, when they ended 50 years of uninterrupted control of the House by Democrats.

Speaking of the 1994 election, President Joe BidenBill Clinton’s median approval rating (43%) this midterm was lower than Bill Clinton’s (45%) midterm 1994. In fact, Biden’s approval was largely consistent (at the level). 43% average) with the approval of recent presidents.

Clinton, Barack Obama and Donald Trump all have average approval rating between 43% and 45% at this point in their first term. Their parties all suffered net losses of between 40 and 63 seats in the House of Commons. The opposition party had between 230 and 242 seats.

That’s what the race ratings show is more likely the House seats Republicans will hold after this election. (Among recent presidents, only George W. Bush has a higher average approval rating, at 62%. His party won a House seat in 2002.)

Yes, other factors, most prominently the general vote, suggest that House Democrats will do better.

But as I pointed out last week, the generic ballot is not a perfect predictor. If the general vote is sustained through the election and House Republicans far outnumber the results they did in 2020, they will most likely end up somewhere in the region. about 230 to 242 House seats.

Electoral models of FiveThirtyEight and Jack Kersting, based on a range of variables, gives Republicans a one-third chance of ending up with at least 230 seats. That’s still better than the chance either model gives Democrats a hold of the House.

Speaking of Democrats struggling, one of the last places you’d expect them to be in trouble would be Oregon. It’s a Biden state get 16 points in 2020.

So why is the President in the state on Friday and Saturday? That’s because it’s a rare deep blue state where Republicans have a good chance governor, as well as several seats in the United States House of Representatives.

The reasons why Christine Drazan could become the first Republican elected governor of Oregon in 40 years is a lot.

Most notably, Democrat-turned-independent Betsy Johnson appears to be ripping votes from Democratic candidate Tina Kotek. While Johnson doesn’t just pull from Kotek, her voters are more likely to identify as Democrat than Republican.

Johnson’s presence in the race means that Drazan may only need 40% of the vote to win, not anywhere close to a majority.

But the race for Oregon’s tight directorship isn’t just about Johnson. Kotek is looking to succeed Democratic Governor Kate Brown, whose tenure is in place. Brown is one of the least famous governors in the country, hurt by the increase homelessness and cost of living.

Kotek, herself, is drawn to be too liberal.

On the other hand, Drazan has managed to get away with one of the larger charges against other Republicans running for green state governor this year. She is firmly in the camp believes that Biden has legitimately won the 2020 election.

That makes drawing Drazan too extreme even harder.

Republicans are also seeking success in the Oregon vote. Election advocates agree that the race in Congressional District 5 is quite competitive. Biden will win the seat with 9 points under the following lines of redistricting, but GOP chances have increased dramatically after Representative Kurt Schrader was defeated by a more liberal challenger in the Democratic primaries.

Analysts are more divided on their views on Oregon’s 4th District and the newly formed District 6. But almost everyone agrees that the former is at least still going and the second could easily be won by the Republicans.

If Republicans, as expected, keep the rural 2nd District and win one of the three competing counties, it would mark the first time they’ve held two House seats in Oregon in nearly 30 years. If they win two of these seats and District 2, it will be the first time they hold at least half of the Oregon House of Representatives seats in nearly 50 years.

The bottom line: Republicans only need to win five seats nationally to regain a majority in the House, and more than half of those seats could be won in Oregon.

Monday ( most recent weekday until October 16) is Boss’s Day. I know the stereotype is that people hate their boss. They even made a The movie is quite funny about it.

However, the data shows something a little different. Gallup polled People’s opinion of their boss since 1999, and most people actually consider their boss A-OK.

For example, in 2021, 63% of Americans said they were completely satisfied with their current boss. This number is tied for the highest percentage since 1999 (with 2020). It is significantly higher than the 47% who said they were completely satisfied in 1999.

Plus Americans are somewhat satisfied with their boss (25%), and nearly 90% of Americans are satisfied. Meanwhile, only 2% of Americans are completely dissatisfied with their boss.

For the record, I like my boss. (Yes, I am a fool.)

Increased use of solar energy: The percentage of Americans who say they have installed solar panels at home is up to 8%. This has doubled from 4% in 2016 and increased from 6% in 2019, according to Pew Research Center.

Covid-19 vaccination rate stable in nursing homes: ONE Analysis by Kaiser Family Foundation Government data shows that the percentage of nursing home residents and staff who have received a vaccination or booster shot has remained essentially the same for a number of months. Approximately 87% of residents and 88% of staff received a primary, while 74% of residents and 51% of staff received at least one booster.

Layoffs in reduced news: Only 11% of major newspapers will be laid off in 2021. Pew found this is down from 33% in 2020 and 24% in 2019. Among digital-original stores, 3% have laid off in 2021. This is down from 18% in 2020 and 11% in 2019.

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