How Caleb Williams’ Heisman Odds Have Changed This Season; surprising historical trend

As the regular season comes to an end and the Bowl games come upon us, its official awards season. This Saturday at 8 p.m. ET, the winner of the Heisman Trophy, the most prestigious of them all, will be announced.

One thing’s for sure, the Heisman winner will be a quarterback.

The finalists to win hardware are USC sophomore Caleb William, TCU elder Max Dugan, Georgia elder Stetson Bennett and Ohio State children CJ Stroud.

Williams is the current heavyweight to win, sitting in position -2000 at FOX Betting.

But that’s not always the case, as signal caller odds change erratically throughout the season. Considering that, coupled with the fact that finalists like Duggan didn’t even have a chance to win the award in Week 1, FOX Sports Research decided to delve into the history of the award from a different angle. betting level.

Let’s jump in.

Let’s start with Williams, who opened the season with +1000 odds to win the FOX Bet, the third shortest odds of any player entering Week 1. The only players with odds Better odds to start the season as last year’s winner in Alabama midfielder Young Bryce (+375) and 2022 Finalist CJ Stroud (+200).

Williams never got above +1000 until Weeks 9 and 10, when most sportsbooks, including FOX Bet, put him in the +1200 to +1400 range. During those weeks, USC racked up single-digit wins over underappreciated opponents in Arizona and California.

At a time Pac-12 The championship game went on, Williams became the favorite to win the prize, coming in at -2000 place in most books. Despite the loss WyomingHis 363 passes and three touches in the air cemented his position, especially as he was clearly injured during the game.

If he wins the prize as bettors predict, he will be the eighth USC player to win (including Reggie Bush’s vacated Heisman). Williams will also be the third Troy midfielder to do this, after Carson Palmer (2002) and Matt Leinart (2004).

An interesting fact is that since 2000, 18 of the 22 Heisman winners have been quarterbacks.

During the same time period, only three runners have won the prize — Derrick Henry (2015), Bookmark Ingram (2009) and Reggie Bush (2005, vacated). Perhaps the most surprising winner since 2000 is DeVonta Smith in 2020 – the first wide receiver to win the award since Desmond Howard in 1991. Smith’s win rate was +10000 before the season started, before dropping to +200 in the championship game. SEC enemy. Since 2000, an SEC player has won the prize eight times, more than any other conference in that time period. How is the SEC dominance?

We would also be remiss not to mention the 2016 Heisman winner. lamar Jackson, as he’s a much weaker underdog going into the season. Like Smith, “Action Jackson” was rated +10000 in pre-season before skyrocketing to -5000 favorites in Week 12. He’s only the third ACC player to win the award since 2000. , participation State of Florida midfielder James Winston (2013) and Chris Weinke (2000).

Speaking of Winston, he’s one of four Heisman winners over the past 14 seasons. not even on the board on most sportsbooks before Week 1! Since 2009, Winston (2013), Johnny Manziel (2012), Orange Newton (2010) and Mark Ingram (2009) were not listed on the odds tables before Week 1 in most books nationwide.

What’s even more surprising is that if you exclude these four, the average open rate of the other nine Heisman winners since 2009 comes to a whopping +3836. For a perspective on this trend, Duggan isn’t in most tables heading into Week 1 and Bennett is at +5000.

During the same time period, the only pre-season favorite to win the award was Marcus Mariota in 2014, who opened the season at +425 and -1500 in the Pac-12 Championship Game. Another interesting anomaly we would like to mention is the 2012 Heisman celebration, in which all three finalists were not listed on the odds table prior to Week 1. Texas A&M’s Manziel, Notre Dame’s Manti Te’o and Kansas State’s Collin Klein were not listed in most sportsbooks before the season began. As of 2009, of the 39 players in the top three of the Heisman poll, the average pre-season odds are +1797 (players with no odds are given a value of 0).

With that said, we hope this information helps you as the next season rolls around, as the Heisman Trophy winners are often won by the least-expected players. Are you ready to bet on Caleb Williams or maybe a black horse? Go Bet FOX now for all your bets before Saturday!

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