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Insider report: How the public is betting Tennesee-Georgia, Packers-Lions


Mostly every fall football weekend, Sunday NFL as the main course, with Saturdays on campus being the starter.

But this weekend, guests arrive early, with the College Football Week 10 odds table serving Tennessee in Georgia. The Vols are number 1 in the newly released College Football Playoff rankings, while Georgia is number 3. Let’s share this week’s list of great games.

What follows is more on that SEC clash, other colleges’ Week 10 odds nuggets, and some NFL Week 9 odds gems.

Rocky Top between the fence

Tennessee is having a stellar season so far, with a straight 8-0 (SU) and a solid 7-1 by the margin (ATS). So those who bet on Vols are definitely cash-for-money tickets. Biggest win comes on October 15th, hot 52-49 win first Alabama. And as the home team less than 8.5 points.

Fast-forward to this week, the top-ranked Vols are similarly lower, with eight points. But this time, it’s the way against the defending national champion Bulldogs.

There’s no doubt this match will have a lot of bets on it when it kicks off on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET. But Neil Fitzroy, risk and odds manager at The SuperBook, said late on Wednesday night it was a bit quiet.

“Nothing to it. We opened Georgia -8, and we’re still at -8. So far, there’s only been small stuff among straight bets,” said Fitzroy. “Tennessee is getting 64% [spread] ticket. The public probably likes Tennessee. But the sharpshooters and market leaders have yet to show their hands.

“I’m sure the money will go into that game on Friday and Saturday.”

Opinion is more defined at DraftKings, as Tennessee-Georgia started looking a lot like Alabama-Tennessee three weeks ago. In a Tide-Vols match, spread and moneyline bettors all put the house dog Vols and make it pay off.

Less than 72 hours before the Vols-Bulldogs game kicks off, DraftKings is seeing ticket disparity and money overtaking 7-1 on Tennessee Street. And on the money line, the ticket number is 3-1 and the money 9-1 for Vols to cause a whole different upset.

Remember the Titans?

You remember, don’t you? The Titan was the AFC’s No. 1 seed in last season’s knockout round. Then, Tennessee was suddenly defeated by the AFC champions 19-16 Cincinnati.

The Titans then lost their first two games of this season.

But since then, Tennessee (5-2 SU and ATS) has won and gone through 5 games in a row. That’s definitely how you want to play when you have to go to Kansas City for a showdown Sunday night.

The captain is 5-2 SU / 3-4 ATS, but the oddsmakers clearly believe that KC is the head and shoulders – and upper body – over Tennessee. WynnBet opened as an 11-point favorite, going to -12 on Monday afternoon, then to -12.5 on Tuesday afternoon.

“Tennessee is having a relatively easy victory over the underdogs Texans. Kansas City is likely to be sleepy last week,” said WynnBet trader John Manica. However, a notable bet went to the Chiefs at -12, bringing our price down to -12.5, where the market stands. “

The Titans, with rookies Malik Willis at QB, beating Texas 17-10 last week. Willis did little, but little was asked because Derrick Henry ran wild for 219 yards and two touchdowns. Start QB Ryan Tannehill (ankle) hopes to return this week, but that is yet to be determined. And that also puts most bettors on hold.

“The real action is yet to come in this competition, as I expect the sharks to take a bigger stance by the end of the week when Tannehill’s health is in better alignment,” Manica said. “He is listed as questionable and participates in a limited way in [Wednesday’s] Practice. I expect a flurry of Tennessee action if Tannehill is announced as a starter. “

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Where are they?

In January, you may recall that Los Angeles Rams and Tampa Bay Buccaneers gave us a thrilling NFC Split Round playoff game. (And you can actually recall that spectacular Sunday game: Receipt vs. Chiefs.) The Rams overcame Tampa with a 30-27 win and eventually won the Super Bowl championship.

But this season, the Rams and Bucs look nothing like those teams. LA is 3-4 SU/2-5 ATS, while Tampa Bay is 3-5 SU/2-6 ATS. And brave cat & Co. failed to hit the figure six weeks in a row.

The Rams and Bucs meet again at 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday, and professional bettors have weighed in.

“Even though both teams haven’t been in their best form lately, the sharks got their opinion on this game early on,” Manica said. “We were at +3 (-105) on Tuesday on the Rams and a respected source put it. Then, about an hour later, another player bet us at + 3 (-115) on Rams That led us to move the key number to Bucs -2.5 (-120), where we are right now. There is little interest in Bucs at that price point. “

More sharp sides

A professional bettor is intrigued by a pair of underdogs in the NFL’s Week 9 odds market: Washington and New Orleans. The commanders (4-4 SU and ATS) organize the increase Minnesota Vikings (6-1 SU, 3-4 ATS), while Saints (3-5 SU and ATS) respond Baltimore Raven (5-3 SU, 3-4-1 ATS) on Monday Night Football.

“I’m at +3.5 for Washington. The command team has the 2nd defense in the league. And in my opinion, Minnesota is not the same team, especially bot lane,” he said. “Also, the QB change inspired the Commanders.”

Carson Wentz was on the verge of being injured with a wound to his finger. In his absence, Taylor Heinicke helped Washington to two wins in a row – Command took three in a row – into the warm-up at 1 p.m. ET Sunday on FOX.

As for the Saints, the astute bettor got the best number, as New Orleans is currently +2.5.

“I took New Orleans +3.5 early. That number is gone,” he said. “I believe [Ravens tight end] Mark Andrews sit, and the Saints have new life because of this [bad] assignment.”

Andrews (shoulder/ankle) hurt during Baltimore’s Thursday night win at Tampa Bay. He has a problem playing against New Orleans.

And from NFC South bettors’ point of view, there is no team above .500, with Atlanta currently in first place at 4-4 SU.

College Football Rocks on FOX

Back to school, Texas Christian is 8-0 SU and is one of the best spread teams in college football, with a 6-1-1 ATS scoreline. But Horned Frogs finished 7th in the original College Football Playoff rankings.

That means TCU not only needs to win, but it also needs some help to stand a chance of making it into the four-team tournament.

In Saturday’s Big Noon match on FOX, TCU was the favorite at home with 9.5 points ahead. Texas Technology (4-4 SU and ATS). At DraftKings, Horned Frogs are getting 75% of early tickets based on points. However, the money by point spread is much closer, with just 53% cash back on the home favorite TCU.

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Package backup

Green Bay have been terrible this season, sitting at 3-5 SU and ATS so far. Aaron Rodgers & Co. fell four in a row on the field. In terms of the only savings chance the Packers were underrated by 10.5 points in their 27-17 Week 8 loss to Buffalo. That broke the four-game ATS slide.

In Week 9, Green Bay aims to get back on track on the road to combating bunker living Detroit (1-6 SU, 3-4 ATS). It’s Sunday’s warm-up at 1 p.m. ET on FOX.

Despite all the Packers’ woes, public/entertainment bettors can still have a bit of an edge for A-Rodg.

“Green Bay hasn’t been able to win for four weeks, and they need over 60 minutes to quit Patriots long ago for their last win,” WynnBet’s Manica said, alluding to the overtime win at home on October 2. The Little Lions sold some this week in exchange for one of their best offensive weapons in [tight end] TJ Ho Chickenon. The action in this split game is small but falls short in terms of the Packer’s ticket count. “

So this will be a typical week for Manica and other bookmakers, cheering for Detroit, a 3.5-point house dog.

“The public will see Rodgers put a small number against the worst team in the NFL,” Manica said. “Coming from Detroit, just when you think the Lions can’t win, in general the opposite happens. I expect public support for Packers, with sharp people. put the Lions on what could become classic expert opinion against the public.” “

I like big bets and I can’t lie

There are yet to be any major bets reported for NFL or college games this weekend. But one bettor at Caesars Sports had a good Monday night. And it capped a big NFL weekend for tall players.

The bettor had a pair of $110,000 bets on the Bengals-Brown game:

  • Browns +3.5 and Cleveland hits 32-13, customer wins $100,000
  • Under 47.5, barely get there, but still get there, to withdraw another $100K

That’s after the same customer won 2-1 on three extra $110,000 bets during NFL Week 9:

So for the week, the big bettor raked in $290,000. That should help in a bad economy – not that this bettor has any money worries. Here’s hoping you get the same success, though certainly on a much smaller scale, later this week.

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and a senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a well known journalist in the national sports betting space. He lives in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in the 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.


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