Lula’s stunning comeback sees a new pink tide in Latin America

Political analysts say Lula’s victory marks the most symbolic change in a political movement that has seen right-wing governments in the region replaced by wing leaders. describe.

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Brazil’s Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s remarkable return to the presidency heralds a new so-called “pink wave” in Latin America, but political analysts say the faction’s latest resurgence The left is very different from its rise to power in the 1990s.

Lula won her third presidential term late last month, guaranteed 50.9% of votes overflow to defeat the incumbent far-right Jair Bolsonaro by a margin.

It marks an unusual political return for the 77-year-old former metalworker, who was jailed in 2017 during a sweeping investigation following his 2003-2010 two-term presidency. Lula was freed in 2019 and his conviction was subsequently cleared, paving the way for him to find a way back to office.

Speaking at her campaign headquarters after her win, Lula described returning to her office as a “reborn. ”

Bolsonaro, meanwhile, broke his nearly two-day silence about his election defeat earlier this week but stopped congratulating or acknowledging his opponent’s victory. Bolsonaro is not expected to object to the election results.

Political analysts say Lula’s victory marked the most symbolic change in a political movement that has seen right-wing governments in the region replaced by left-wing leaders.

The mainstream that has brought this ‘pink tide 2.0’ into office is not ideological but anti-social – the natural outcome of a decade of economic stagnation caused by the pandemic.

Mariano Machado

Principal Analyst for Latin America at Verisk Maplecroft

Center-left candidates have won elections in Mexico, Argentina, Bolivia, Peru and Honduras in recent years, while left-wing leader Gabriel Boric secured a historic victory in Chile in last year, and Gustavo Petro became Colombia’s first left-wing leader in June. The burgeoning left-wing bloc echoes a regional political shift similar to that seen two decades earlier.

“The new pink tide is, in many ways, different from the previous one,” said Pedro Abramovay, executive director for Latin America and the Caribbean at Open Society Foundations, a pro-democracy group.

Social inclusion and the fight against inequality remain central to the movement, Abramovay said, noting that leaders such as Colombia’s Petro and Chile’s Boric have put climate, gender and climate issues at the heart of the movement, Abramovay said. racial equity and justice at the forefront of their campaigns.

“Lula is a bridge between both periods,” says Abramovay. “He was a prominent leader in the last court but postponed his speech to find those new answers and now it is in his hands to amplify them globally.”

Abramovay said Lula’s victory also “consolidates Latin America as the only democratic and progressive region in the Global South, meaning Brazil will have a vital role globally as a broker to solve problems.” deal with issues like climate and other international negotiations.”

‘A novel, uncomfortable location’

The turn away from leftist parties in Latin America comes as soaring inflation and the impact of the coronavirus pandemic prompt voters to reject reputable parties and instead favor promises of social spending. larger association.

Political analysts say that while the new leaders of the pink dynasty have enough support to take power, they do not appear to have the necessary ingredients to be able to implement sweeping reforms.

Supporters of Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro take part in a protest demanding federal intervention outside the Army headquarters in Brasilia, November 2, 2022.

Sergio Lima | Afp | beautiful pictures

Mariano Machado, principal analyst for Latin America at political risk firm Verisk Maplecroft said: “The mainstream to bring this ‘pink tide 2.0’ into office is not ideological but rather antithetical – the natural result of a decade of economic stagnation caused by the pandemic. told CNBC by email.

“Sitting between a rock and a hard place, they have the votes to oppose direct institutional challenges, but not the majority to implement sweeping reforms – a position,” Machado said. unpleasant, new to most of these political actors.

“This is impacting the first ‘new generation’ outreach office – like Chile’s Gabriel Boric – as much as it will impact the ‘early start-ups’ coming back – like Lula. will have to follow suit. strong trends, are going through.”

Chilean President Gabriel Boric speaks at the 77th session of the United Nations General Assembly on September 20, 2022 in New York City.

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