MLB Odds: Breaking down teams’ post-season chances

By Edward Egros
FOX Sports MLB Betting Analyst

Welcome back to class! Today’s lecture on how to bet on new futures contracts is available on FOX bets: Will a team make MLB post-production? It’s a simple “Yes” or “No” answer with different odds attached.

I’ll take a look at some of the main bets that I like, but first, here are some ground rules and key resources to help you out.

As I’ve detailed before, this post-season phase is different: 12 teams will advance (six division winners and three wild cards from each tournament). No additional games; instead, groups are decided by head-to-head record, divisional record, out-of-season performance, etc.

What is involved is also related to the remaining strength of the schedule. Because we are over 2/3 of the season, some ball clubs will have more favorable odds than others, and we need to factor that information into the current split standings to place bets. ours.

Fortunately, we have two resources to help. FanGraphs lists the Strength of the Fixture numbers alongside other playoff predictions, but instead of just looking at the opponent’s win percentage, it adjusts the opponent’s strength in the schedule. If a box of shadows is weaker than its record suggests, the correction will catch up to it. In addition, Baseball Reference uses its simple Rating System, which takes into account the difference between the previous runs and strength of the schedule, and calculates the remaining schedules, known as rSOS.

Finally, it’s important to remember which formations each ball box is currently using because of trade and health deadlines. Repurchase Juan Soto work for Padres more dangerous than a few weeks ago.

Without further ado, here are some bets I like (all odds at FOX bets):

The Mets are the Arena of the World Series: the excellence of deGrom, Scherzer and Edwin Diaz | Flippin bat

Ben Verlander analyzes three reasons why the New York Mets are a World Series caliber team. Verlander explains why the return of Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer’s continued dominance on the mound have had such a huge impact on the New York team. Next, Ben discusses the depth of their attack with Pete Alonso, Starling Marte, Francisco Lindor, and finally… the best in baseball, Edwin Diaz!

Milwaukee Brewers (No: +150, bet $10 to win $25 total)

I will start by choosing violence. For both Brewers and St. Louis CardinalsThe result is clear: win the split or take a wild card position.

I also don’t have a complete Milwaukee.

Not only are the Brewers already behind in the standings, their schedule is fundamentally tougher, with seven games against Dodgersthree against Yankees and three against Mets (The Cardinals have only had three games against the Dodgers and have not faced any New York teams.)

Their activity on trading term is also very stable. Milwaukee needs to improve his attack. While the Brew Crew team ranked five impressively in isolation strength (0.176), they also ranked 19th in expected batting average (0.237), indicating if Christian Yelich, Rowdy Tellez & Co. If they don’t make a solid connection, they may have trouble.

Their main office added price increase while trading closer Josh Hader to San Diego. Nearly everyone else the Brewers are fighting for playoff spots have better bats. I don’t have Milwaukee in post-season.

Note: Because I’m “no” on Milwaukee, an alternative way to bet this advice is to consider St. Louis is a “yes,” although I’d recommend taking them to win the division instead of paying bigger (-227, bet $10 to win a total of $14.41).

Tampa Bay Rays (No: -110, bet $10 to win $19.09 total)

Arguably no ball club has been harder to tell apart using statistics than the Rays over the years, regardless of predictions as well as anyone. However, 2022 looks different.

This season, Tampa Bay is 20th in xBA, 26th in xwOBA and has several celebrities on the injured list, notably Kevin Kiermaier for the rest of the season. They also have the toughest schedule left in the US league.

Where they often shine can be overlooked areas: bullpen and defense. But in 2022, relief pitching ranks 18th on the FanGraphs WAR (2.1) with one of the more volatile situations closer. Additionally, Outs Above Average, a Statcast defense metric that assigns probabilities for difficulty of turns and gives credit to those taking those difficult turns, Rays ranks 12th in overall defense. .

With a crowded US league and lots of opponents with easier schedules and better offensive firepower, this season could be the first since 2018 where the Rays haven’t been able to rally them all. together.

Chicago White Sox (Yes: -130, bet $10 to win $17.69 total)

While the AL Center remains the most exciting division race left, second place can still be made post-season because of health concerns and the Rays’ harsh schedule. Southsiders could be that group.

First, there’s nothing wrong with sticking to your stubs, even in August. Almost all of us expected the White Sox to win the rankings and become a strong contender for the pennant. While they are a disappointment compared to pre-season expectations, there is still time to salvage a run, as with AJ Pollock take over the absence of Tim Anderson and Luis Robertsor pitcher Lance Lynn back to form.

Chicago has the easiest remaining fixture schedule in its division, albeit by only a few percentage points. They also have significantly better xBA and xwOBA than the leader Guardians. Losing Anderson for a considerable amount of time really hurts, but Jose Abreu, Andrew Vaughn & Co has proven more than just to keep this offense alive and well.

Getting creative with this bet will help you. For example, if a ball club loses a significant pitcher for the remainder of the season, its post-season results line may be sharp, but that move will result in who can win an alternative playoff spot and who is scheduled to face that injured ball club.

Charting the dominoes, as well as the resources provided, will go a long way in making you money here.

Class Dismissed!

Edward Egros is a sports analyst/writer, sports betting analyst, data scientist, and teaching assistant in statistics at Pepperdine University. These passions led him to become an avid cold drinker. Edward previously worked in local television, especially at the Fox affiliate in Dallas, including Rangers, Cowboys and high school football. Follow him on BILLIONwiter @EdWithSports.

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