NBA Odds: Acumen is betting on NBA Draft 2022

Via Sam Panayotovich
FOX Sports Betting Analyst

The NBA Draft betting market is not your average bear.

It’s different from betting by point spread, total score or player support on a random Tuesday night in mid-January. Those markets are mostly predicted based on power ratings and algorithms, and sportsbooks have a good chance of fighting, especially considering that you’re placing -110 or higher in a fair fight .

The draft market, though, can take a beating.

“They’re just driven by information and narrative,” draft bettor Mike Helfgot told FOX Sports. “There’s no algorithm and no advantage for sportsbooks. Bad numbers go boom and some of those markets never stop working. That’s why we see so few. more chance.

“If you find reliable sources that include drafts and trust that information, you can certainly make some money. That said, it is a challenge for professional bettors. that I know to put down good money.”

Helfgot, a former sports reporter, has built a portfolio full of NBA Draft bets over the past few months, thanks to researching endless drafts and mining information from reputable sources through mock drafts, podcasts and Twitter.

And instead of waiting, he will fire as soon as he finds an advantage or an opportunity to beat the market around a player whose stock he thinks will go up or down.

Helfgot has bets such as Bennedict Mathurin “under” 8.5 and Mark Williams “on” 12.5, draft slots were not available for a while. There are rumors that Detroit Pistons are strongly weighing Mathurin in 5th place and others say Williams could easily fall out of the lottery.

Last year, Helfgot bet Chris Duarte “under” 21.5 weeks before the draft, and the market for draft positions closed at O/U 14.5. The Indiana Pacers chose Duarte with the 13th pick.

“If you beat the market with 10 drafts, you win seven of them,” he said.

The most interesting market for this The NBA Draft of the Year is the first overall pick. Jabari Smith Jr. 1 after the NCAA Tournament, and he became a huge hit in early June with a favorite price of $5 or more at many stores.

However, there has been an avalanche of money on the Paolo Banchero and Chet Holmgren due to rumors that Orlando Magic The main office has yet to decide which players to draft.

The Magic is keeping their information close to the coffin, but the betting movement cannot be ignored. Banchero went as high as 18-1 earlier this week in the US markets, and those odds are long gone.

First overall pick odds via FOX Bet:

Jabari Smith Jr., F, Auburn (-138)

Paolo Banchero, F, Duke (+200)

Chet Holmgren, F, Gonzaga (+200)

“The #1 Option Market is a great microcosm of how the narrative drives things,” Helfgot explains. “Everybody knows Jabari, Chet and Paolo as the three best players of the season.

“I was very impressed with Paolo throughout the NCAA Tournament. To me he was the best player, but that’s not how the NBA Draft world looks at it. (Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN) says Orlando focused on Jabari and Chet after the draw, and most reputable sources believe Jabari was ahead.

“After a few weeks, the price went up all the way putting the Jabari -600 at the top of a sportsbook. Then last week a picture of him was picked up at the airport by general manager Sam Presti of Oklahoma City ⁠— along with a report that Orlando is still undecided ⁠— and Jabari’s odds plummeting, but nothing really changed.

“It’s really interesting that those numbers move so little.”

So… what is the play with about 48 hours left?

“Smith is a sure bet at current prices,” admitted Helfgot. “It’s very cheap compared to the market that already exists. And not a single draft of the media believes the Paolo-to-Orlando hype.

“I don’t think that Magic is passed on to Smith.”

Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He has previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He will probably choose your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.

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