Since it’s Thanksgiving, we’re all going to be eating a lot of turkey this week. Wouldn’t it be nice to have some extra cash to go with the main course?
That’s why I give you all my best bets for NFL Week 12 — bets that I hope will earn us a few dollars as we start this holiday season.
Get ready to dig into my picks for this week’s list of fun games (odds via FOX Bet).
I don’t like to start the NFL weekend with a big, well-loved public road, but I’m leaning in this direction right now.
As of 2004, the Thanksgiving favorite is 35-16 over the spread. A favorite that gets over 60% of tickets, usually an easy one for me, is showing 20 of the last 27 Thanksgiving matches. Those are both strong indicators that history and trend are on the Bills’ side here.
After two stumbling games when Bill lost jet plane and Vikings, they recovered to beat the Browns in Detroit. Remember, they played that game in Detroit after the game was moved because of snow concerns in Buffalo. The Bills remain the most efficient team in the NFL, leading in DVOA overall. They are a well-balanced team that ranks in the top 5 in terms of attack, defense and special teams.
The Lions are fun to watch and have won two in a row, but they’re simply not a good team. Their attack is 10th in DVOA, but their defense is 25th. They allow a lot of points and measure, and that’s why the Bill will cover this game.
Oh, can I get Titans points at home with an extended break? Sign me up.
Mike Vrabel, Tennessee’s head coach, is currently head coach 9-1 as his team gets an extended break. The Titans are a well-trained team and they don’t beat themselves up. Their weak point is the passing game, this has been improved against Packers with healthy gameplay Ryan Tannehill. He’s 20 years 27 with 333 passes.
If Tannehill can have that performance with Derrick Henry pouring into the defense, it will be difficult for the Bengals to stop them. The Bengals are 16th in the rush and we know the Giants are going to want to make this a game of tit-for-tat.
The Titans are leading 7-3 this season because of their stellar defense. They can rush straight into the passer, handle full-backs and cover at the end of the field. They are physical, intimidating and stingy about allowing points. The captain takes extra time to score 20 points.
Recently, the super hot strike of the Bengals has scored a lot of points. And that’s no Ja’Marr Chase Who maybe back this weekend. Since Chase is no longer active, the Bengal team relies heavily on the production of backrunners, in both the running and passing games.
The Titans have demonstrated the ability to block the best you do, so without Chase, the Bengals attack would have a hard time moving the ball.
I like Titans to cover.
The Commanders are hosting the Falcons this weekend with the goal of making it to the knockouts, and I’m in. Taylor Heinicke train. They are a better team with him in midfield because they believe in him. That belief goes a long way.
Washington’s offense ranks 21st in DVOA since Heinicke took over in Week 7, up from 28th under Wentz. Eighth best defense in the league in weeks without office in the midfield position.
Falcons is an interesting story that started the season 3-3 after the previous win 49ers. However, while the record (5-6) may not show that, the Falcons have regressed. Marcus Mariota have only thrown more than 200 yards once since Week 3. This team is too monotonous to play on the road against Washington.
I’m happy to see the Commanders are playing well right now.
Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at a favorable position for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was selected to the All-Pac-12 second team in his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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