Week 4 of NFL The season is upon us and FOX Sports Research is here to give you the edge you need to make a profit this week.
Trending part of last week indicates several winning teams when four 0-2 teams are covered against the spread (ATS), Los Angeles Rams win and be covered as favorites and Dallas Cowboys win straight (SU) as the bottom team.
We dive into the data and analyze the overall patterns again, along with coach and player-specific trends, to inform you about who should bet this week.
Have a little fun!
Big Favorite Cover of Week 4
We generally prefer the underdogs in games with large margins, but our data has historically said the opposite for Week 4 games. Green Bay Packers was the favorite candidate of 9.5 points at FOX Bet in their match against New England Patriots. Such a big favorite for the Packers is probably related to the game at Lambeau Field and the Patriots start in midfield Mac Jones injured.
Furthermore, the 9-plus favorites have been 26-21-1 ATS (55.3%) and 38-10 SU (79.2%) in Week 4 since 2000. When looking at Green Bay specifically, they are 3-2 ATS (60%) and 5-0 SU are the 9 to 12 points favorite under Matt LaFleur. Aaron Rodgers is also 23-21 ATS (52.3%) and 38-6 SU (86.4%) as his favorite 9-plus in regular-season games of his career.
The underdogs were recently mentioned in Week 4
This is an interesting one as it only relates to the previous decade of the Week 4 play. When going back further, the percentages are even out and not so much. However, going back to 2010, the rates were lower than sugar at 63-46-1 ATS (57.8%) and 42-68 SU (38.2%) in Week 4. Since 2015, cover and win rates have both increased slightly to 58.8% and 42%, respectively, with bot laners 40-28-1 ATS and 29- 40 SU. And if you go back to just the last three seasons (as of 2019), both rates have increased dramatically – 19-11 ATS (63.3%) and 16-14 SU (53.3%). There are eight teams this week that fit this bill, according to FOX Bet odds.
Patriotism (+10) at Packers
Rams (+2.5) at San Francisco 49ers
Kliff Kingsbury is dominating as bot laner
We mentioned this trend at the start of the season and won’t mention it again as the Cardinals are a 1.5-point trailing team behind the Panthers at the FOX Bet.
Since taking over as head coach of Arizona, Kliff Kingsbury has been a bot laner by 14-4-1 ATS (77.8%) and 12-7 SU (63.2%). Over the past two seasons, he has led 7-0 ATS and 7-0 SU in such situations.
Sean McVay and the Rams will include
This is a particularly tough call, considering the Rams are 4-10 ATS and SU (40%) compared to the 49ers since 2015. However, the 49ers are on a bad 11-10 loss first. Broncos.
Here is some insight into why trends suggest using the Rams against the struggling 49ers:
- Rams under Sean McVay:
19-12 ATS (61.3%) and 20-11 SU (64.5%) vs NFC West teams 11-5 ATS (68.8%) and SU on the road with NFC West teams 4-2- 1 ATS (66.7%) and 5 -2 SU (71.4%) in Monday game
- 19-12 ATS (61.3%) and 20-11 SU (64.5%) vs NFC West . teams
- 11-5 ATS (68.8%) and SU in laning with NFC West teams
- 4-2-1 ATS (66.7%) and 5-2 SU (71.4%) in Monday games
FOX Bet currently has Los Angeles as the team under 1.5 in Monday night’s game.
0-3 teams included in Week 4 (Raiders)
Just like the trend predicting which teams 0-2 will cover last week – Bengals, Eagle, the Titans and the Panthers have all done it – the same can be said for the 0-3 teams. Back in 2015, the 0-3 teams were 21-11 ATS (65.5%) and 15-17 (46.9%) SU in Week 4 games. If you go back even further to in 2010, coverage was still 60.4%, with teams hitting 32-21 ATS during that time period.
The Raiders were the only team with a 0-3 scoreline and they were given a 2.5-point handicap at home against the Broncos at the FOX Bet.
Search for the Browns to win and fight the Falcons
This line is suspiciously low because FOX Bet has Cleveland Browns are the road favorites 1.5 points against the 1-2 Falcons. This may be related to the fact that Myles Garrettthe status of having problems after endure a car crash beginning of the week. However, all the data point towards the Browns mantle.
Here’s what we found in the match:
- Browns are 12-3 ATS (80%) and SU vs Falcons since 1966
- The Browns are 8-3-2 ATS (72.7%) and 8-5 SU (61.5%) ahead of NFC South rivals since 2010, with lower hit rates in eight of those games (61.5%)
- The Browns are 7-3-1 ATS (70%) and 5-6 SU (45.5%) on the road against NFC South rivals since 2000, with lower hit rates in eight of the games that (72.7%)
- Falcons are 1-4 ATS (20%) and 0-5 SU as home team under Arthur Smith (since last season)
Cowboys should win and include
We said the Cowboys would win last week as the underdog and we want them to win again as the favorites this week against the team. Washington commanders. FOX Bet has a surname of 3–favorite spot at home, with the line having moved from 2.5 at the start of the week.
As of 2018, Dallas is 18-7 ATS (72%) and 19-6 SU (76%) ahead of NFC East rivals, with overshoot rates in 15 of those games (60%). During the same time period, the Cowboys were 10-2 ATS (83.3%) and 11-1 SU (91.7%) when playing at home against rivals in the same class. Wins were also achieved in 10 of those games, a rate of 83.3%.
So are you ready to place some NFL bets? Pass FOX bets Now for all your bets!