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NFL Week 9 Odds: How to Bet on Chargers-Falcons


The Los Angeles charger going to Mercedes-Benz Stadium to play Atlanta Falcons on Week 9 of NFL Season.

Los Angeles, coming up to a bye week, will try to recover from last week’s 7 loss Seattle Seahawks football team.

Atlanta is having a crisp victory against Carolina Panthers in Week 8 and look for a chance to pass .500 for the season with the Charger.

Here’s everything you need from a betting perspective on the Chargers-Falcons game, from spread, money flow, Total Over/Under and expert picks (odds through FOX bets):

Los Angeles charger in Atlanta Falcons (1 p.m. Sunday ET, FOX and FOX Sports apps)

Point difference: Charger -3 (Charger is preferred to win more than 3 points, otherwise Falcons will cover)
Cash flow: Charger -162 favorites to win (bet $10 to win $16.17 total); Eagle +125 bottom team to win (bet $10 to win $22.50 total)
Total Over/Under Score: 49.5 points scored by both teams combined

Los Angeles charger

LAC

Atlanta Falcons

ATL

AFC Playoff Leaderboard: Will the Chargers, Bengals or Patriots take the final place?

Emmanuel Acho, Joy Taylor, LeSean McCoy and David Helman decide who will take the final spot.

Choose via FOX Sports Betting Analyst Jason McIntyre:

Even with the Charger capable of being limited to the receiver (Keenan Allen’s hamstring; Mike Williams‘ankle), they should move the ball early and often face a very bad Falcons defence.

Even if Atlanta gets CB AJ Terrell back, they still didn’t create pressure (last in the league, 11.5 percent), so Justin Herbert there will eventually be time in the pocket to find the open receiver. The Falcons allow Carolina’s fourth string quarter, PJ Walkerthrow 317 yards, for God’s sake.

Secondary LAC lost JC Jackson – people have been in trouble – so they will have problems in protection Kyle Pittswho seemed to come out of the doghouse after catching five passes into the season-high nine goals in 80 yards and once TD faced off against the Panthers.

I’m worried about backing the Chargers here if they can’t stop the Falcons game from running, which could happen Cordarelle Patterson back from IR. This is why I would go with Over.

PICK: Over 48.5 points scored by both teams combined at FOX Bet

Choose through FOX Sports Gambling Expert Warren Sharp:

Falcons’ defense ranks dead last in the allowable success rate against early stage RB targets.

Now they’re up against the team that uses RB goals more than anyone else in the NFL.

The Chargers have only played seven games, while all the other teams in the top five have played eight, but the RB routes soon run:

333 – LAC

281 – IND
265 – RED
265 – NYJ
263 – Labor

And the RB goals paint a similar picture, as all the other teams played eight games while the Chargers played just seven.

73 – LAC

57 – IND
56 – RED
54 – TB
54 – NYJ

That’s the Charger… and then the others. Austin Ekeler should celebrate in this match.

He’s not the only one.

So Justin Herbert.

Herbert can take back the services of his No. 1 WR, Keenan Allen. It’s a myth to think this, but Allen has been targeted just six times all season, and that’s because he only played part of Week 1 and part of Week 7. But what if he returns? and anywhere close to 100% against the Falcons, it can be a huge boost.

As great as Justin Herbert can be, like most QBs, he’s prone to pressure. Look at his YTD split during the early downswing:

Pressure: -0.33 EPA/att, 29% success, 4.4 YPA, 1:2 TD:INT
No pressure: +0.16 EPA/att, 48% success, 7.1 YPA, 11:2 TD:INT

And the last three games the Chargers played, look at the defences they’ve faced ranked by pressure ratio since Week 4:

No.3 – Denver
No. 10 – Cleveland
Number 17 – Seattle

Now they get the team with the worst pressure ratio in the NFL, the Falcons.

We liked the Panthers last week because the Falcons weren’t under pressure, they allowed the highest completion rates, and they failed many times when they started high school.

They will still come down Casey Hayward, sure. And they have allowed the fourth most production for WRs from this location. This would be a huge advantage for Herbert if he brought back Keenan Allen.

Finally, out of 35 QBs, Justin Herbert ranked 32nd in the percentage of passes from more than 10 meters to the pitch. This is a problem with Joe Lombardi’s offense and offensive.

However, in this match, it really isn’t a bad thing.

That’s because NO TEAM has successfully allowed more head-to-head passes than the Atlanta Falcons in the first three quarters.

Is crazy.

The Falcons are allowing:

+0.26 EPA/att (No. 31)
69% success (number 32)
81% of completions (number 32)

This equates to a ton of success for Herbert.

On the other side of the ball, the Falcons can rely on their barrage of attack, which can have Cordarrelle Patterson’s service.

But what’s bigger than that will be the simple fact that Chargers are terrible at fleeing, and the Falcons have faced a barbaric defense.

For the past four weeks, the Falcons have played no role but defended the top 12 of 49ers, BucsBengals and Panthers.

They now get the Charger, who ranks 31st in yards before exposure each RB test.

Also, they rank last dead in the gauge AFTER contact each charge.

So they get moved out of bounds AND they struggle to deal with it well.

As a result, they ranked last in the YPC allowed RB at 6.1 yards.

If allowing 6.1 YPC doesn’t sound good, put it in context.

No team since 2000 has allowed an excess of 5.75 YPC to RB during the season and Charger at 6.1.

And even if you look only at the first 8 weeks of a season, there hasn’t been a team that has allowed more than 5.95 YPCs to face RBs (KC 2008).

The Chargers are the only team since at least 2000 that allowed YPC to add 6 times to RB in the first eight weeks of the season.

Marcus Mariota passed more last week, and while I don’t know he’s going to pass a ton in this game, thanks to the production Atlanta will see on the ground, he’ll be quite effective when he gets through. .

The charger is allowing 9.3 yards to target TE (number 31), which bodes well for Kyle Pitts.

Also, the Falcons’ offensive behavior is actually behavior against Joe Lombardi.

They don’t throw underneath at all.

They have the fifth highest percentage of all passes over 10 yards and the sixth highest percentage of all passes over 20 yards.

And guess which defense is the worst in the NFL compared to passes thrown more than 10 yards down the field?

Charger.

They are allowing +0.59 EPA/att and 52% success on these 10-yard passes down the field, allowing 11.6 YPA.

While it seems unlikely that Keenan Allen will be in this game, I believe it is appropriate to bet on the game over total or the Falcons exceed their team’s total.

PICK: Over 49.5 points scored by both teams combined at FOX Bet

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