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Russia-Ukraine War Slows Growth in 2022 in Developing Countries in Asia


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© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Cars, buses and public transit pass through a main road during rush hour in Cubao, Quezon City, metro Manila, Philippines February 23, 2018. REUTERS / Dondi Tawatao

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The Asian Development Bank said on Wednesday that growth in developing Asia is likely to be slower this year as the war in Ukraine is expected to slow down. derail an economic recovery in a region still reeling from the COVID-19 pandemic.

The combined economy of the bloc, which includes China and India, is expected to grow 5.2% this year, down slightly from the 5.3% forecast last year, the ADB said in a report. December and strongly lower than the growth rate of 6.9% of the previous year.

For 2023, the sector is forecast to grow 5.3%.

“Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has severely disrupted Asia’s development prospects, which are still in competition with COVID-19,” the ADB said in its Asian Development Outlook report.

The Manila-based multilateral lender said other factors could also weigh on the region’s growth prospects, including persistently rising commodity prices, heightened financial stability risks, and rising financial stability. likely stemming from aggressive interest rate hikes in the United States and the emergence of deadly COVID-19 variants. .

The agency said China’s economy is likely to grow 5.0% this year, slower than the December forecast and much weaker than the 8.1% growth in 2021, due to COVID- 19 outbreaks disrupted economic activity and dampened consumer spending.

With the exception of South Asia, all sub-regions are expected to grow more slowly than expected this year. ADB now thinks East Asia and Southeast Asia will grow 4.7% and 4.9%, respectively, instead of 5.0% and 5.1%.

With commodity prices stronger than expected, ADB raised its inflation forecast for the region to 3.7% in 2022 from a previous forecast of 2.7%, before dropping to 3.1% in year 2023.

GDP GROWTH

2020 2021 2022 2022 2022 2022 2023

july july july july july

Central Asia -2.0 5.6 4.0 4.2 4.4 3.6 4.0

East Asia 1.8 7.6 5.1 5.1 5.0 4.7 4.5

China 2.2 8.1 5.5 5.5 5.3 5.0 4.8

South Asia -5.2 8.3 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.4

India -6.6 8.9 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 8.0

Southeast Asia -3.2 2.9 5.2 5.0 5.1 4.9 5.2

Indonesia -2.1 3.7 5.0 4.8 5.0 5.0 5.2

Malaysia -5.6 3.1 5.7 6.1 5.9 6.0 5.4

Myanmar 3.2 -18.4 n / an / an / a -0.3 2.6

Philippines -9.6 5.6 5.5 5.5 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.3

Singapore -4.1 7.6 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.3 3.2

Thailand -6.2 1.6 4.9 3.9 4.0 3.0 4.5

Vietnam 2.9 2.6 7.0 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.7

Pacific -6.0 -0.6 4.0 4.8 4.7 3.9 5.4

Growing -0.8 6.9 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.3

Asia

INFLATIONARY

2020 2021 2022 2022 2022 2022 2023

july july july july july

Central Asia 7.7 8.9 6.3 6.7 7.3 8.8 7.1

East Asia 2.2 1.1 2.2 2.2 2.0 2.4 2.0

China 2.5 0.9 2.3 2.3 2.1 2.3 2.0

South Asia 6.5 5.7 5.1 5.1 5.3 6.5 5.5 5.5

India 6.2 5.4 4.8 4.8 4.8 5.8 5.0

Southeast Asia 1.5 2.0 2.4 2.4 2.5 3.7 3.1

Indonesia 2.0 1.6 2.8 2.7 2.7 3.6 3.0

Malaysia -1.1 2.5 2.0 2.3 2.3 3.0 2.5

Myanmar 5.7 3.6 n / an / an / a 8.0 8.5

Philippines 2.4 3.9 3.5 3.5 3.7 4.2 3.5

Singapore -0.2 2.3 1.2 1.4 1.4 3.0 2.3

Thailand -0.8 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.4 3.3 2.2

Vietnam 3.2 1.8 4.0 3.5 3.8 3.8 4.0

Pacific Ocean 2.9 3.1 3.9 4.1 4.1 5.9 4.7

Developing 3.2 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 3.7 3.1

Asia

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