The war in Ukraine is a shock, not a surprise—it’s been a clear and present danger since Russia’s invasion of Crimea in 2014. It’s also no surprise that the world has watched Russia rally. forces on the Ukrainian border for months. By 2023, war will be fully transparent, seen and understood by integrating information from satellites—commercial low-Earth orbit satellites as well as satellites and satellites. high-class ground-fixed military aircraft; all the digital traces left behind as people and devices move in a highly connected world (from closed-circuit television cameras and traffic data to bank cards and mobile phone locations) ); and popularity of user-generated content discoverable on social networks.
In 2023, it will no longer be possible to sneak into other people’s countries with land, navy or air force, or hide the death and destruction they cause. Armed forces around the world will try to counter this by rallying, moving from domestic bases, and dispatching to the front lines in more distributed ways, hiding as much as possible where they are. easy to see. They will most likely fail, but the fleet of commercial trucks that move a small number of heavy artillery shells on diverse routes from West to East in Ukraine shows what can be done.
The success of both man-portable and heavier anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles against armored vehicle columns and aircraft lines — plus the undisputed vulnerability of all of Ukraine to ballistic missiles and Russian long-range cruise, and the sinking of a Russian warship Moscow—shows that precision weapons are ending the dominance of platforms and headquarters that have dominated battlefields since the early 20th century. A precision missile, even if it costs tens of thousands of dollars. , can destroy a multi-million dollar platform and put the lives of its crew in jeopardy. This will change the way the army, navy and air force is organized, equipped and operated. The limiting factor today is the cost and manufacturing complexity of these weapons, but as the world lives with the existential danger of a Great Power Conflict in the 21st century, the need The need to reduce costs and increase inventory will only increase.
By 2023, digital technologies will transform confrontation and conflict, as transparency and accuracy merge with advances in robotics, autonomy, connectivity, data data in secure cloud and artificial intelligence. This combination will result in armed forces that are no longer just operators of equipment, but rapidly evolving teams of autonomous, uninhabited and inhabited capabilities. This is a process that begins by enhancing the way armed forces are organized, operated, and trained today, but as technology advances and experience evolves, it will transform just as Airbnb does. with accommodation or Uber for transportation. The Digital Age will drive the most profound transformations in how nations confront and conflict. This will be a decades-long competition in which the winners are bold enough to move fast and the losers do not succumb to the comfort of gentle change.
Despite this transformation, the nature war will never change: It’s killing people and breaking their stuff faster than they can do with you. It will still be a struggle for wills, an aspect of the human condition that is far from erased for all its ferocity, absurdity, and despair. The result will remain an undescribed blend of reason, emotion, and chance. Technology has only changed the way we fight, not why.
