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Tropical Depression 9: Gulf of Mexico threatened by a potential storm

This system has attracted the attention of meteorologists because both American and European weather models show it. develop into a storm and into the Gulf of Mexico early next week.

The nine peaks had sustained winds of 35 mph, about 615 miles east-southeast of Jamaica, west-northwest at 13 mph.

“Only slow intensity is forecast for the next day or so, followed by stronger intensity over the weekend and early next week,” the storm center said.

In the short term, Nine is forecast to bring heavy rains to Aruba, Bonaire, Curacao, northern Venezuela and northern Colombia, which could lead to flash floods and mudslides across the archipelago.

The system is then forecast to strengthen, strengthening into a tropical storm as it tracks towards Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. Tropical storm warnings and warnings are likely to be issued for these locations within the next 24 hours.

Total rainfall forecast:

  • Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao: Add 1 to 2 inches
  • Northern Venezuela: 2 to 5 inches
  • Northern Colombia: 3 to 6 inches
  • Jamaica: 4 to 8 inches with local maximum up to 12 inches
  • Cayman Islands: 4 to 8 inches
  • Southern Haiti and Southern Dominican Republic: 2 to 4 inches with local maximums up to 6 inches

After passing through the Caribbean this weekend, the system is forecast to track near or across western Cuba as a hurricane and enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week.

“Early modeling guidance was fairly well agreed upon, but larger line-wide spread began to form after 48 hours,” the storm center said. “There is still a large amount of uncertainty in the track forecast for the 4-5 day timeframe.”

Both major weather models, US and European, are now showing tracking systems entering the Gulf of Mexico early next week; however, Americans show a more westward line and Europe shows a more easterly line.

Friday morning, European modeling showed the storm passing through the Florida Keys on Tuesday, affecting much of southern Florida. US modeling showed the storm affected much of Florida’s west and central coasts on Wednesday.

Official forecast tracking from the hurricane center divides the difference between weather models, showing the storm approaching the Florida peninsula on Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning as a strong Category 2 hurricane.

Tracking the storm center Friday morning showed the system entering the Gulf of Mexico and affecting Florida early next week.
Regardless of where the storms end up tracking, conditions in the Gulf favorable for reinforcement systemMaria Torres, a spokeswoman for the hurricane center, told CNN.

It was a slow start compared to what is forecast to be an above-average hurricane season. Only one hurricane made landfall in the United States, and none made landfall or threatened the contiguous United States.

Now, a week past the peak of hurricane season, the tropics appear to have woken up and forecasters fear people have let their guard down.

Phil Klotzbach, a research scientist at Colorado State University, tweeted: “After a slow start, Atlantic hurricane season has arrived quickly.

“People tend to let their guard down and think, oh yeah, we’re in the woods,” says Torres. “But in reality, the season goes on. We’re still in September; we still have October to go. Anything that forms in the Atlantic or the Caribbean is what we need to be. very closely watched.”

The Atlantic hurricane season ends on November 30.

No problem, if you live in the Caribbean, Florida and other states along the Gulf Coast, keep an eye out for updated forecasts from this weekend to early next week.

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