But even if Republicans head towards what feels like that inevitable outcome, there are signs that Trump as a GOP candidate in 2024 is an adequate proposition for the party.
1) 54% believe that in his actions after the 2020 election, Trump “went so far as to threaten American democracy.” (Only 38% said he was “only exercising his right to run”.)
2) 51% say Trump has “committed a serious federal crime” in connection with various ongoing investigations into him.
Consider those two data points. One majority voter’s claim that the former President of the United States actively threatened American democracy and committed federal crimes.
Yet despite those numbers, the Republican Party – or at least the Republican base – looks set to nominate him once again to the highest office in the country.
Which seems, well, like a risk?
(Notable: In the Times/Siena poll, Trump took 42 percent to Joe Biden’s 45 percent in the hypothetical 2024 presidential match.)
The challenge for Republicans is that Trump still extremely common with the GOP basis. This would make it very difficult for anyone – even Florida Governor Ron DeSantis – to take him down in a main game.
But numbers like these should make Republicans nervous about what they will get when Trump becomes the candidate. Will voters really support a candidate they believe has violated federal law?
The point: Welcome to the Trump conundrum – impossible to beat (or close to it) in a primary and deeply problematic in a general election.